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Friday, August 14, 2009

Assessing the Delphi Method

Published in The Psychologist, August 2009 Vol 22(8), page 654.

While I enjoyed the description of the Delphi technique by Susanne Iqbal and Laura Pipon-Young (The Psychologist, July 2009) I missed any detailed evaluation of its accuracy.

I noticed that they cited the Haggard and Haste 1986 piece forecasting the state of psychology in 2010. I would think an evaluation of the accuracy of that forecast a year early might have been

I also recall participating in a similar exercise (alas I forget the name of the principal
investigator) run by the BPS in 1971 or 1972 when I was at the London Business School.
How well did that forecasting exercise turn out?

Martin G. Evans
Cambridge, MA, USA

Editor’s note: We are indeed hoping to publish a follow up next year! The other exercise
was a 30-year delphi published by J.M. Smith in the Bulletin in 1975, so it might be one to
return to in 2035.

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